Quiet Sunday but a big warmup is coming

8:51 PM, Jan 26, 2013   |    comments
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Get this: In a span of 2 1/2 weeks we will have gone from a high of 59 F, down to a high of 8 F and then back up to a high of 48 F (or 49, something around there). That's pretty wacky, even for Maine weather. Throw a bust-of-the-year NORLUN trough in there and you have yourself a busy little weather nerd. (Not "little" like height wise: I got an email from a girl last night that read, and I quote, "I think you are really cute but I fear you are like 5'5" Wow, ok then.)

Tonight: Partly cloudy and cold. Lows will be able to stay in the single digits along the coastline but the rest of the state will fall to between -3 and -10, even colder in the mountains. The winds have been a little frisky and that will continue with gusts up to 25 MPH. That combination is good enough for a Wind Chill Advisory over the mountains and into northern Maine.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and quiet. Temperatures will be below average again (average is about 30 F) but not as frigid as during the work week. Look for highs in the upper teens to low 20s. Unfortunately the wind will remain gusty until at least noon, so the wind chill will remain a factor (get it? nevermind).

Monday: A sunny start to Monday will give way to increasing clouds from southwest to northwest by the afternoon. North of Bangor the clouds won't arrive until Monday night, so let's just call it mostly sunny there...elsewhere it will be mostly cloudy by sunset. The clouds will be associated with a warm front slinking on in from the south. Because of a setup I've described before called "overrunning", in which warm air flows over the top of cold air at the surface and produces precipitation, snow will likely break out late afternoon over southern and western Maine and southward into New Hampshire.

Monday night: From where I stand (which is higher than 5'5"), the dynamics for this little shot of snow look  decent for a time so I'm thinking southern, central and western Maine could pick up a quick few inches (2-4" deal probably) Monday night into early Tuesday morning. North of Bangor look for very little accumulation as the front is too far away. Over time precipitation type will become an issue over York and Cumberland counties especially. Warmer air will be invading at the mid and upper levels and we could be dealing with some freezing rain by dawn on Tuesday.

Tuesday: Pockets of freezing rain and spotty snow could make things tricky in the early morning hours before the precipitation shuts off by mid morning. After that it will be cloudy and warmer for the rest of the day with high temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 30s.

A big burst of mild air arrives as the warm front pushes into Canada Tuesday night. That will set up Wednesday with very unusually mild air pushing highs into the mid to upper 40s almost statewide. Unfortunately the warm air will come with an approaching batch of rain and it should be raining at least at a moderate clip by Wednesday afternoon.

More rain Thursday morning before mixing with snow at the end as colder air rushes back in.

Temperatures will return to cold (but not arctic) levels on Thursday night.

By the way, according to my last physical I'm 5'10.5". With my unusually puffy hairstyle I'd say I look 5'11" day to day. But I responded to the girl with the following: "1) I'm happily married 2) I'm 5'3" but wear heels on the set."

Twitter: @KeithCarsonWCSH

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